Hurricane watch. By Elsie

10^th September 2017

Today I am starting our unofficial hurricane watch.

I have watched two major hurricanes come over the Atlantic and hit the Caribbean and USA mainland. It has been painful to watch from a distance. Checking the weather this morning I suddenly realised it might not be from a distance any more. We use four weather models when we are sailing. Grib files are compressed weather files. Predict Wind has been our weather Bible while we crossed the Atlantic and old habits die hard so we still consult the web site on a daily basis. We also use Passage Weather and Wind Finder. It is very difficult to predict the weather along the east coast of America. Cape Hatteras seems to act as an incubator for weather storms and various other points act as catalysts. Therefore, 48 hours seems to be the longest time in which weather can be accurately predicted.

Checking the weather this morning, I realised that three of the four models have hurricane Jose coming North. Oh dear. So, hence the start of the hurricane watch on Ruby Tuesday. Hurricane Jose/Jage seems to wander around the edges of the Caribbean for the next few days then strikes North with a vengance. First of all I should explain. Hurricane Jose has been renamed Hurricane Jage by a couple of very young sailors of our acquaintance. The girls are part of the lovely family who sail Emerald Bay. Jage is the skipper of a Cat who is part of our Whats App Group. He sails with his wife and two adorable children. We all love Jage. He is a plain speaking Scotsman who is always organising a party or clearing up after a party. He thrives on adventure, doesn’t understand the meaning of “can’t”, loves meeting people and we all love him. But, as the girls quite rightly point out he’s a hurricane so Hurricane Jose is now Hurricane Jage.

Back to my hurricane watch, three out of the four models we use daily says the hurricane is coming north. Two of them indicate that it will skirt the USA East Coast and hit Halifax in Canada. One says it will be a direct hit on the New York area. As I have already explained it is very difficult to predict weather here so I am taking the threat seriously. Hurricanes move slowly, maybe 10 to 15 mph which is good when you are waiting for one, not so good when you are experiencing it. It gives you time to prepare, find a hurricane proof anchorage/mooring ball/marina, take all the canvas off the boat and batten down the hatches then find a nice hotel room to watch the storm go by. We have already identified a couple of likely places. The problem is so has everyone else. Do we hurry along and make sure we get a prime space then look stupid when the hurricane changes it path and swings back out to the Atlantic. Or do we take our time and find the place is over crowded and more dangerous because of that and put Ruby in danger of being damaged by other boats as well as the winds.

At the moment we are making our way sedately along Long Island Sound towards Port Washington or Atlantic Highlands. We have a week to ten days before the potential winds reach here. I’ll keep you posted if we have made the correct decision or not.

11^th September

Update of my Hurricane Jage watch. So far so good. We are about 30 miles from our “safe” place and should be there by tomorrow or Wednesday depending if the wind blows. Remember, I’m Scottish and old habits die hard, why use costly fuel when you can be propelled by free wind. The weather forecast is saying it will be breezy (30 – 40 mph) next Monday and Tuesday but that’s the worst scenario. We have seen worse on the West coast of Scotland but we are still taking no chances. I think a nice wee rest in Port Washington will do us both good – get the washing done and stock up with vital food stuff for the cellar and of course a few more visits into New York. The wind will bring torrential rain for those two days but Ruby does need a wash and my sister in law gave me loads of books so we’ll just hunker down and keep dry.

Everything looks far more positive tonight. I might get a decent nights sleep.

12^th September 2017

Day 3 of Hurricane Jage watch. The weather models now have Hurricane Jage wandering about aimlessly until the weekend then heading North. The most the New York area will get is about winds of 35mph, which we are used to coping with. In fact I think the UK will get worse winds than this area so don’t hang out your washing without checking the weather forecast in three weeks time. We are still heading for Port Washington. Another crisis has struck the crew of Ruby Tuesday or should I say specifically the skipper. Remember the 12+ cases of beer bought before we left St Augustine? Well the last of them has been opened. There has been the gnashing of teeth and the rolling of eyes while he tried to work out where it was most convenient to restock. Port Washington has a dingy dock across the road from a huge grocery store. Problem solved, crisis adverted.

The next adventure we have to plan is an overnight trip from Atlantic Highlands to Cape May, out in open water. The forecast wind in this area is not high but Hurricane Jage will be passing off shore which will cause huge swells along that coastal area, another problem to be solved or do we have the patience to wait for every thing to calm down?

Are you on tender hooks for the next thrilling installment of “Life as a Sea Gypsy”?

17^th September 2017

OK, I have been a little bit complacent about these hurricanes – yes, these hurricanes, Jage, Lee and Maria. There are now another two developing and one of them may be more troublesome than Jage has been so far.

Today we made the decision to move from Port Washington to Atlantic Highlands. Both are comparatively sheltered but Port Washington will be more comfortable in the forecasted NE wind. The decision was made partly because the predicted winds of Jage have dropped in this area and also there is a U.N. summit in New York this coming week. This means the East River will be closed off to all traffic between 9am and 9pm. The East River is the water between Long island and New York. It becomes very narrow as it approaches the city and just before Roosevelt Island three bodies of water meet creating the well named Hells Gate. The passage through Hells Gate has to be timed so that you are moving with the current or the boat will be going backwards even at full throttle. Do it right, which we have now done twice she says very smugly, the boat can get a push of 5 to 6 knots, do it wrong and you stand still for an eternity.

Back to the U.N. summit. The U.N. building stands on the shore overlooking East River therefore that part of the water is closed when the important guys turn up because of security. We didn’t fancy doing the passage at midnight and it will be closed during the day so the choice was go today or wait until next weekend and maybe miss the good winds to take us down to Delaware. So we went and now we are anchored in Atlantic Highlands with four other boats who took the plunge.

It was the correct decision this morning now we are not so sure. The forecast has totally changed again and hurricane Jage may be edging closer to the east coast of America. It also may pass then do a sweeping circle and creep back on us. Not good. Even the Hurricane Centre is not sure what is going to happen in the next few days so it’s a game of wait and see. The more interesting thing is hurricane Maria is following in Jage’s footsteps and could be here next weekend after playing havoc with the Virgin Islands. If we get strong NE winds there is a tiny little anchorage a couple of miles away which would have better shelter than here so we are not completely panicking.

The next decision will be made on Wednesday afternoon, after the initial pass of hurricane Jage. Do we go before it might turn back and before Maria reaches us or do we stay tucked in out of danger? Who said sailing was all white culottes and cocktails?